IN IT-based compute platforms, optical disk drives (ODDs) are poised for a revenue growth of 9.2 percent (figures from iSuppli) over the period 2005-2010, as against a CAGR of 5.7 percent for HDDs. (
Table 1.)
Asia dominates the ODD segment, and is a significant player in the HDD segment.
Table 2 shows the overwhelming share of Asian companies in the ODD segment. A continuing trend is DVD burners and combos replacing CD-ROMs. This is pushing ODD more toward DVD and away from CD-ROM, and DVD burners form the fastest growing sub-segment of the ODD industry for the computer market, growing at CAGR of 35 percent. The advent of the blue laser technology, announced at CES 2006, is another factor giving ODD a significant thrust. However, the format war between HD-DVD and Blu-ray DVD is bound to create confusion in the market and adversely affect ODD market. At the time of this writing, there does not seem to be any resolution to the format war, which is affecting both the compute and consumer industry. The Sony-NEC joint venture, Optiarc, to develop an ODD drive that can read or write both HD-DVD and Blu-ray DVD, is a step to offer customers a compromise solution. But how acceptable this solution is to the customer is yet to be seen. In 2005, HDD shipments rose to 376 million units, up 23 percent from 305 million in 2004, and in 2006 shipments are estimated to rise 14.4 percent to 428.4 million units.
Table 3 shows the top HDD companies in 2005 and their percentage share.
In 2006 HDD demand is estimated at $25.6 billion in computer segment, and $5.7 billion in CE segment, totaling $31.3 billion. With the acquisition of Maxtor, Seagate will further consolidate its position as the no. 1 HDD player. Hitachi is taking on WDC for the no. 2 position. Most of the other positions in top 10 will be taken up by Asian companies, as in 2005. Fujitsu and Cornice collaboration to develop HDDs for consumer electronics market is an important development that need be closely watched. The transition to perpendicular recording technology introduced this year is greatly increasing HDD capacity. Once HDD makers have mastered this technology and have ramped up volume production, the industry might look at new applications and form factors, as per an iSuppli report.
There was a flurry in the HDD market when Apple decided to switch in the HDD segment.
Table 2 shows the overwhelming share of Asian companies in the ODD segment.
A continuing trend is DVD burners and combos replacing CD-ROMs. This is pushing ODD more toward DVD and away from CD-ROM, and DVD burners form the fastest growing sub-segment of the ODD industry for the computer market, growing at CAGR of 35 percent. The advent of the blue laser technology, announced at CES 2006, is another factor giving ODD a significant thrust. However, the format war between HD-DVD and Blu-ray DVD is bound to create confusion in the market and adversely affect ODD market. At the time of this writing, there does not seem to be any resolution to the format war, which is affecting both the compute and consumer industry.
The Sony-NEC joint venture, Optiarc, to develop an ODD drive that can read or write both HD-DVD and Blu-ray DVD, is a step to offer customers a compromise solution. But how acceptable this solution is to the customer is yet to be seen.
In 2005, HDD shipments rose to 376 million units, up 23 percent from 305 million in 2004, and in 2006 shipments are estimated to rise 14.4 percent to 428.4 million units.
Table 3 shows the top HDD companies in 2005 and their percentage share. In 2006 HDD demand is estimated at $25.6 billion in computer segment, and $5.7 billion in CE segment, totaling $31.3 billion. With the acquisition of Maxtor, Seagate will further consolidate its position as the no. 1 HDD player. Hitachi is taking on WDC for the no. 2 position. Most of the other positions in top 10 will be taken up by Asian companies, as in 2005. Fujitsu and Cornice collaboration to develop HDDs for consumer electronics market is an important development that need be closely watched.
The transition to perpendicular recording technology introduced this year is greatly increasing HDD capacity. Once HDD makers have mastered this technology and have ramped up volume production, the industry might look at new applications and form factors, as per an iSuppli report. There was a flurry in the HDD market when Apple decided to switch from HDD to NAND flash for iPod. This was said to adversely impact the 1-inch drive. It was even feared that HDD may eventually have to pave way for semiconductor memories. The continuous rise of HDD in terms of revenues and shipments shows that this fear is baseless. New applications both in computing and consumer electronics are keeping HDD demand up. Nevertheless, it is generally accepted that NAND flash is a threat to HDD.
