Mobile messages to surpass 2 trillion messages in major markets in 2008
(Business News, 02 Jan 2008 )
Gartner Inc. forecasts 2.3 trillion messages will be sent across major markets worldwide in 2008, a 19.6 percent increase from the 2007 total of 1.9 trillion messages, as the popularity of mobile messaging services continue to grow. Mobile messaging revenue across major markets will grow 15.7 percent in 2008 to $60.2 billion, up from $52 billion in 2007.
Although mobile messaging traffic volumes will continue to show strong growth in many markets, operator margins on messaging services have become progressively thinner as a result of competition and market saturation. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for Short Message Service (SMS) revenue in major markets worldwide from 2002 to 2006 was 29.8 percent. From 2007 to 2011, the CAGR for SMS revenue is forecast to be 9.9 percent.
"In many markets, there has been strong pressure on operator margins for text messaging services and this has been driven by often intense competition between carriers," said Nick Ingelbrecht, research director for Gartner. "At the same time, consumers have grown accustomed to large or unlimited bundles of inclusive SMS as part of their basic cellular service package. Carriers should plan for a future of much reduced margins on messaging services. They should develop messaging platforms, services portfolios and pricing plans that support the broader objectives of customer acquisition and retention, rather than short-term margin enhancements."
Asia/Pacific and Japan are the biggest consumers of mobile messaging. Gartner estimated that there were 1.5 trillion messages sent in 2007, and the number will grow to 1.7 trillion in 2008. Volumes of short messages and picture messages will increase, but growth rates are expected to slow in line with the saturation of mobile connections. Volumes of photo messaging will start to stall in the next few years as users increasingly share photos through mobile communities and social network portals rather than sending them directly to one another.
