The Asia-Pacific semiconductor chip sales leading indicator went up in January by 3.9 percent to a reading of 399, after increasing 5.2 percent in December, according to economic research firm e-forecasting.com. The index was set to average 100 in 2000.
The indicator, comparable to the company’s other global regional semiconductor industry indicators for North America, Japan and Europe, is a forward-looking composite index that forecasts six months ahead, on average, business activity in the region for semiconductor sales. The six-month growth rate is commonly used in business cycle analysis for both signaling impending turning points in business activity and as a recession monitor. The semiconductor leading indicator’s six month growth rate went up 165.6 percent in January 2010, after going up 192.6 percent in December. Consecutive positive values in the six-month growth rate predict an end to an economic recession and the beginning of an upcoming expansion.
“The Asia-Pacific region’s semiconductor leading indicator has gone up 11 consecutive months. The six-month growth rate, a good indicator of upcoming expansion or recession, remains at high levels but growth continues to pull back from the previous highs. I would echo my remarks last month that there is warning that growth will slow later this year," noted Maria Simos, CEO of e-forecasting.com.
e-forecasting.com
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